November 20, 2025 Crypto Market Analysis: Accumulation amidst fear, a sign of a rebound?

bitcoin continues its correction, oscillating between $91,000 and $96,000. The Fear and Greed Index remains in the fear zone at 27, but on-chain data indicates that large-scale buying by large investors is underway. as of Upbit, Bitcoin is up 1.17% from the previous day at $138,091,000, while Ethereum is up 0.44% at $4,530,000. XRP is up 0.79% at $3,171. taken together, technical indicators and derivatives data suggest that the market is likely to form a medium to long-term bottom amid short-term weakness.

buy recommendation score trend analysis

recently, the buy recommendation score has been volatile and trending downward. here's how the recommendation score has changed over time.

a negative score indicates that selling pressure is prevailing in the short term. however, the large fluctuations in the score indicate that the market is in a transitional period where it is looking for direction.

uBIT Spot Market Status and Fundamental Analysis

looking at the movement of major coins based on the Ubit price, Bitcoin was stable at $138,091,000, up 1.17% from the previous day. ethereum is up 0.44% at KRW 4,530,000, while XRP is up 0.79% at KRW 3,171. compared to the Binance futures market, Bitcoin futures are up 0.21% at $92,506, while Ethereum is down 2.15% at $3,037 and XRP is down 3.52% at $2.13. the premium difference reflects relatively strong buying from South Korean investors.

regulatory clarity increased after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved Bitwise's multi-asset cryptocurrency ETF. the ETF will track 10 major digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, and must maintain at least 85% in SEC-approved assets. Kraken filed for an IPO at a $20 billion valuation, with Citadel Securities making a $200 million strategic investment. The market for bitcoin-backed stablecoin loans is also booming. tether has made a strategic investment in Ledn, which has executed $1 billion in bitcoin-backed loans in 2025 alone.

however, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw the largest single trading day outflows of $523.15 million. For the entire month of November, an estimated $2.6 billion to $3 billion flowed out of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, reinforcing investors' risk aversion. Panic selling by short-term holders has also continued, with an estimated 6.96 million BTC in the red. Meanwhile, discussions about the threat to Bitcoin's security from quantum computers have intensified, but the industry sees this as a long-term challenge beyond 2030.

technical Analysis: Market Direction from Technical Indicators

bitcoin technical indicators

bitcoin is currently trading at the $96,052 level. The RSIis in the neutral zone at 49.35, showing no overbought or oversold signals. The MACDis in negative territory at -330, indicating bearish momentum. the histogram shows continued downward pressure, but the extreme oversold condition is stabilizing.

in Bollinger Bands analysis, Bitcoin is trading near the middle band. After testing the lower band in early November, it has recovered to the middle band, and the band width has become extremely narrow on the monthly chart, suggesting that large-scale volatility is imminent.

moving average line analysis shows that Bitcoin is above the short-term moving average but below the medium and long-term moving averages. the 5-day MA at $96,060, 10-day MA at $96,044, and 20-day MA at $95,774 are all above, but the 50-day MA at $97,108, 100-day MA at $100,091, and 200-day MA at $101,854 are below. This suggests short-term support but medium-term bearish pressure.

ethereum technical indicators

ethereum has the strongest technical structure of the three major coins. it currently trades at $4,490, with an RSI of 61.64,which is in bullish territory without being overbought. this indicates healthy buying pressure and further upside. The MACDis in positive territory at +19.65and is above the signal line. this is a strong buy signal and indicates that the upward momentum is continuing.

on the Bollinger Bands, ETH is trading in the middle to upper range. after testing the lower band in mid-November, it has recovered to the middle band and there is room for movement in both directions.

in moving average analysis, ETH is trading above all major moving averages. the 5-day moving average at $4,483, 10-day moving average at $4,478, 20-day moving average at $4,480, 50-day moving average at $4,418, 100-day moving average at $4,299, and 200-day moving average at $4,153 are all above, indicating a bullish trend across all time frames. this is the most bullish arrangement of the three coins.

XRP Technical Indicators

XRP is trading around the $2.50 level. The RSIis in the neutral zone at 45.99, just below the median of 50. it suggests that the price is in a sideways range with no strong buying or selling pressure. The MACD is at -0.05,indicating mild bearishness. However, the value is very close to zero and could reverse quickly if buying pressure intensifies.

on the Bollinger Bands, XRP is trading near the lower band and showing signs of a rebound. It tested the lower band of $2.11 to $2.21 in mid-November, which indicates oversold conditions and strong support. A band squeeze pattern is observed, suggesting a big price move in the coming days.

on the moving average line analysis, XRP is below most of the major moving averages. it is below the 5-day moving average at $2.56, the 10-day moving average at $2.53, the 50-day moving average at $2.74, the 100-day moving average at $2.88, and the 200-day moving average at $2.62, but above the 20-day moving average at $2.49. The 20-day moving average is acting as an important support/resistance level.

sentiment Analysis: Fear and Greed Index and Market Sentiment

the crypto fear and greed index is currently at 27, in the fear zone. it is recovering after falling to 10, which indicates extreme fear, on November 15. On November 18, it was at 15, and on November 20, it rose to 27. while this still indicates bearish sentiment, it shows that we are moving away from extreme fear.

historically, the extreme fear zone often indicates a localized bottom. in February 2025, the index was between 10 and 15, and Bitcoin subsequently rose to an all-time high of $126,000. The current index of 27 suggests that investors are still concerned about market conditions, but the sharp recovery from 10 to 27 suggests that the capitulation selling may have been completed.

to put the market in context, Bitcoin has suffered a roughly 30% correction, falling from an all-time high of $126,000 in October to below $90,000 in mid-November. Outflows from ETFs of approximately $2.3 billion, profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty, and liquidation of leveraged longs are among the reasons.

derivatives market analysis: funding Costs and Position Trends

funding rate analysis

bitcoin's funding rate has cooled or turned slightly negative. it was in the neutral range of 0.01% in early 2025, but turned mildly negative in mid-November. from early 2024 to early 2025, it was consistently positive, ranging from 0.01% to 0.03%.

ethereum's funding rate was reported as negative. this means that short positions are paying fees to long positions, indicating a potential short squeeze. For XRP, specific data is limited, but it is estimated to be neutral to slightly negative given the overall market conditions.

funding rates on major exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, and OKX are settled on an 8-hour cycle, with a typical range of -0.375% to +0.375%. is currently in the range of -0.001% to -0.01%, hovering near 0% and slightly negative.

a positive funding rate means that longs are paying fees to shorts and bullish sentiment is dominant. This was the predominant situation in 2024 and early 2025. in contrast, the current negative or near-zero funding ratio indicates bearish sentiment or neutral positioning. Historically, negative funding ratios have marked localized bottoms. negative funding rates have been observed at major lows, including -0.309% during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, FTX collapse, and the Chinese mining ban.

currently, the market is not overheated on the long side, indicating cautious positioning by traders. A short squeeze is likely if buying pressure returns. some Bitcoin futures expirations are showing backwardation, reflecting near-term bearish sentiment.

analyzing the long-short ratio and leveraged positions

in mid-November, single-day liquidations exceeded $800 million, and totaled more than $1 billion during the sharp correction. The composition of the liquidations was primarily longs during Bitcoin's drop from $100,000 to below $90,000.

prior to the correction, in early November, the market was long-biased, with a high percentage of long positions, positive funding fees paid by longs to shorts, and an extreme greed index above 50. after the correction, the market is now more balanced or short-biased, with a shift to neutral or bearish positioning. massive liquidations have cleaned out over-leveraged longs, while fear-driven exits have seen the capitulation of small investors.

longs are not currently overheated. corrections and liquidations have cleaned up excessive long positioning, with a roughly 30% correction forcing leveraged retail investors to liquidate. some analysts believe that large investors may accumulate at this price point. short positions are increasing but not extreme. the negative funding rate suggests increased short interest, but shorts could face the risk of rapid liquidation if Bitcoin regains the key $100,000 level. ethereum's negative funding rate is particularly susceptible to squeeze.

the recent trend in funding fees has been downward. it was consistently positive from Q4 2024 to early 2025, but after peaking in October, it began to cool in early November. in mid-November, funding rates fell sharply, turning slightly negative for the first time since early 2025. Futures markets have shown backwardation and are now near zero or slightly negative. it's unusual for the 30-day average funding rate to be in negative territory.

the implications of the downtrend are as follows first, a psychological shift from extreme greed to fear. second, a reduction in market risk after a period of excessive leverage. third, historically, negative funding ratios often precede reversals. fourth, short-term weakness but long-term uncertainty. While immediate pressure remains, extreme readings often indicate a turning point.

options Open Interest and Put-Call Ratio

bitcoin options open interest is at an all-time high of $50.27 billionon Deribit, with 453,820 contracts. Ethereum options open interest is around $2 billion to $3 billion. Bitcoin futures open interest was $67.36 billion in early November, but has been decliningin recent weeks. traders are closing positions amid price weakness.

looking at key strike price concentrations, Bitcoin has more than 19,000 contracts concentrated at the $100,000 strike, representing more than $2 billion in notional value. call options have strong interest at the $120,000 and $140,000 strikes. Ethereum has concentrated activity at the $3,800, $4,000, and $5,000 strikes.

bitcoin's put-call ratio currently ranges from 0.44 to 0.58across all expirations, nearing the highest level in two years. The latest short-term expirations show bearish sentiment with a ratio of 0.52. The 0.58 level is near historical highs and indicates heightened hedge demand. ethereum's put-call ratio is generally more bullish than Bitcoin, with a ratio of 0.52 to 0.64 for recent expirations.

bitcoin's high put ratio indicates active downside hedging and bearish positioning. puts are trading at a premium to calls, especially in Bitcoin. the market is paying a high premium for downside protection.

on-chain analysis: whale movements and money flows

on-chain data shows the classic divergence between retail investor capitulation and institutional accumulation. bitcoin whales accumulated 186,000 BTCduring the recent dip. A single entity accumulated more than 10,000 BTC, sparking a $1 billion buying spree. Perpetual holders increased their holdings from 159,000 BTC to 345,000 BTC, the largest accumulation in multiple cycles.

smaller wallets moved in the opposite direction. 0.wallets with less than 01 BTC sold 0.36% of supply over the five-day period. In XRP, small wallets have been the largest retail sellers of any major asset, selling 1.38% of their holdings since early November.

looking at exchange-traded fund flows, BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw the largest single trading day outflow of $523.15 millionon November 18th. this followed five consecutive days of outflows of $1.43 billion, and a four-week net outflow of $2.19 billion. overall ETF outflows in November ranged from $2.6 billion to $3.0 billion across 11 U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs: Ethereum ETFs also saw weekly outflows of $689 million, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $165 million on November 18th.

however, ETF outflows coincide with on-chain whale accumulation, indicating that smart money is relocating. Liquidity is shifting from ETF wrappers to direct on-chain storage. the average ETF buyer's cost of funds is $90,146, barely breaking even at current prices.

long-term holder supply has decreased by about 300,000 BTC since July 2025. unlike in previous cycles, long-term holders are selling in bearish or sideways ranges rather than bullish, suggesting fatigue and diminishing confidence. Short-term holders, on the other hand, are selling in surrender. the short-term holder SOPR has fallen to 0.97, with coins being spent in a loss state. there are 6.96 million BTC in a loss position, the highest since January 2024.

looking at network activity metrics, the number of Bitcoin transactions per day is between 320,000 and 500,000, the lowest since October 2023. however, the average daily on-chain settlement value increased to $7 .5 billion, and the average transaction size increased significantly to $36,200. Transactions of $100,000 or more accounted for 89% of the total volume, up from 66% in 2022. Whale dominance is increasing at the on-chain base layer.

overall outlook: Medium-term bottom forming and rebound likely

the market is currently in a typical mid-cycle correction. 71% of supply is in profit, which is in the mid-cycle range of 70-90%. unrealized losses are 3.1% of market capitalization, which is moderate compared to more than 10% in bear markets. Whale accumulation during retail investor capitulation is a classic bottoming pattern.

technically, Bitcoin is mixed, trading above its short-term moving averages but below its medium- and long-term ones. The RSI is recovering from the neutral zone, while the MACD is still bearish but stabilizing its oversold condition. ethereum is above all moving averages and has the strongest technical structure. XRP is bouncing off the lower Bollinger Bands and is in a squeeze pattern, indicating a large volatility is expected.

derivatives markets show a clear defensive positioning. funding rates are at cycle lows and in neutral to negative territory, while the options put-call ratio hit 0.58, near a two-year high. open interest is declining and deleveraging is underway. After more than $1.1 billion in large-scale liquidations, the market is systematically de-leveraging.

on-chain metrics show a clear difference between institutional and retail investors. while perpetual holders accumulated 345,000 BTC, representing a record cycle accumulation, small wallets sold in panic. ETF outflows indicate profit-taking and rebalancing after a period of unprecedented inflows, not panic. key institutional developments such as Bitwise ETF approval, Kraken IPO, and expansion of Bitcoin-backed lending show that long-term infrastructure building continues regardless of short-term price action.

key support is at $88,500, the active investor realization price, with a liquidity band between $85,000 and $88,000. resistance is at the long-term holder cost of $103,700, the upper range of $106,000, and the recent high of $111,900. a recovery of the $90,000 psychological level and the 0.75 cost basis quartile is important.

catalysts for a rebound include: 1) clarity on rate cuts at the December Fed meeting, 2) resumption of ETF inflows, 3) retail investor re-entry, 4) recovery of $100,000 with sustained volume, and 5) exhaustion of long-term holder selling.

conclusion: Weak hands to strong hands

the market is showing a healthy mid-cycle consolidation and is in the bottoming phase, not the beginning of a bear market. the divergence between retail panic and institutional whale accumulation suggests a classic bottom formation. record ETF outflows indicate rebalancing, not asset class abandonment. technical indicators are neutral balanced with oversold recovery amid short-term weakness.

investors should take a cautious approach. volatility is likely to persist in the near term, and a break below $90,000 risks further downside. however, in the medium to long term, extreme fear, negative funding costs, massive post-liquidation de-leveraging, and whale accumulation are factors that have historically preceded rebounds. the process of coins moving from weak hands to strong hands will pave the way for the next upward leg once macro conditions improve.

for now, we see this as a phase of defensive position management and looking for incremental entry opportunities. avoid excessive leverage, keep an eye on key support levels, and recognize that positive signals are accumulating, including institutional accumulation and regulatory clarity.