as of 6 a.m. on October 29, 2025, Bitcoin has temporarily retraced $115,000 and entered a correction phase. On Upbit, Bitcoin is trading at $168.31 million, down a modest 0.40% from the previous day, while on Binance Futures, it is down 1.60% at $112,560. With the cryptocurrency market taking a breather after a strong run in recent days, investors are watching to see if this correction will set the stage for further gains.

in this analysis, we'll take a multi-faceted look at the current market situation through technical, fundamental, and on-chain analysis, and predict the future direction of the market through investor sentiment indicators and derivatives flows.

analyzing the Current Market Situation

major coin price trends

bitcoin (BTC)

  • upbit current price: 168,310,000 won (-0.40%)
  • binance Futures: 112,560.5 USD (-1.60%)
  • 24h Vol: $15.54 billion (Binance Futures)
  • 24-hour price range: $112,121 to $116,074
  • market capitalization: $321.169 trillion

bitcoin is currently finding support at the $112,500 level after rising to near $116,000 yesterday. the kimchi premium is around 1.5%, with buying from domestic investors somewhat weaker than overseas.

ethereum (ETH)

  • current price on Ubit: 5,922,000 won (-2.85%)
  • binance futures price: 3,955.63 USD (-4.21%)
  • 24-Hour Trading Volume: $17.87 Billion
  • market capitalization: 683.65 trillion KRW

ethereum is experiencing a larger correction than Bitcoin, and is down about 5% from its $4,174 high. The weakening ETH/BTC ratio suggests that funds are being channeled into Bitcoin.

leading altcoins

  • XRP: $3,855 (-1.08%), market capitalization $2.21 trillion
  • dogecoin: $287 (-3.37%), $41 trillion market capitalization
  • chainlink: $26,360 (-2.30%), $17 trillion market capitalization
  • bitcoin Cash: kRW 825,000 (+0.36%), market capitalization 15 trillion

altcoins are mostly correcting between 2-4%, but Bitcoin Cash is showing relative strength with a slight gain.

technical Analysis

bitcoin Chart Analysis

moving averages

bitcoin is currently trading above its short-term moving averages (5-day and 20-day), so the short-term trend remains bullish. however, it is testing support near the 20-day moving average (around $110,000) as it is down around 3% from yesterday's highs. the medium- to long-term moving averages (50-day and 200-day) are also all in a bullish formation, so the medium- to long-term trend is bullish.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

the daily RSI entered overbought territory yesterday when it crossed above 75, but has since pulled back to the 68 level. This could be interpreted as a healthy correction signal, and a pullback to the 50 level could be an additional buying opportunity. the 4-hour RSI is in neutral territory at the 45 level, limiting the potential for further downside in the near term.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence Index)

The MACD remains positive and above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend. however, the histogram is declining, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening somewhat. the golden cross remains intact, indicating a correction rather than a trend reversal.

bollinger Bands

bitcoin price broke out of the top of the Bollinger Bands and is now retracing back to the center line (20-day moving average). the bands are wide and volatile, and a bounce off the centerline could lead to another attempt at the top. the lower band is around the $105k level, which will act as strong downside support.

key support and resistance levels

  • immediate resistance: $115,000 (previous day's high), $119,500 (psychological resistance)
  • immediate support: $110,000 (20-day moving average), $107,000 (strong support)
  • medium-term target: $125,000 to $130,000 on a break above $120,000

ethereum and altcoins technical analysis

ethereum failed to break above $4,000 and is trading at the $3,950 level. The RSI is in the neutral zone at 55, while the MACD is in bearish convergence. altcoins are showing relative weakness due to rising Bitcoin dominance (currently around 62%), but we expect inflows if Bitcoin stabilizes.

on-chain analysis

trading Volume Analysis

bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume on Binance Futures Market was $15.24 billion, up about 20% from the recent average, indicating increased volatility and large position liquidations. upbit also recorded KRW 130.5 billion in trading volume, indicating strong interest from domestic investors.

ethereum saw more trading than Bitcoin at $17.87 billion, which is likely related to ETF inflows and large position adjustments.

kimchi Premium

comparing the Upbit Bitcoin price of 168,310,000 KRW to the Binance price of 112,560 USD (about 168,189,000 KRW at the exchange rate of 1,494 KRW), the Kimchi Premium is almost zero at around +0.07%, indicating that the local and foreign investor sentiment is at a similar level, with no extreme fear or greed.

considering that the previous day, the kimchi premium had risen to the 2-3% level, we interpret this as a weakening of the chase by domestic investors.

derivatives Market Analysis

funding Rate Analysis

binance Futures Funding Rates (as of October 29, 06:00)

instrument funding Rate position Direction BTC +0.0037 long overheating alert ETH +0.0007 neutral XRP eTH +0.0007 long Overheat Boundary BNB -bNB +0.0012 short dominance BNB -0.0060 short overheating alert LTC -0.0060 short Overheat XLM -0.0230 short overheating

the Bitcoin funding fee remains positive at +0.0037%, indicating a slight dominance of long positions. every 8 hours, long position holders pay 0.0037% of the cost to short position holders, which translates to a long premium of around 4% on an annualized basis.

compared to historical data, this is a moderate to mild long dominance, but not an extreme long overhang - we typically consider a long overhang when the funding cost is above +0.01%, which increases the likelihood of a correction, and we are currently at half that level.

on the other hand, Tron (TRX) and Stellarumen (XLM) are overheated on the short side with high negative funding ratios of -0.0226% and -0.0230% respectively, suggesting a possible short squeeze (spike) in these coins.

open Interest and Liquidation Analysis

there has been massive liquidation in the last 24 hours, according to news data:

  • "NYSE Crypto Short Liquidation Explodes" (October 29, 00:00)
  • "Massive Liquidations - Institutional Buying Strong Despite Regulatory Concerns" (Oct. 28 06:41)

this appears to have occurred as investors who held highly leveraged short positions near $116,000 were hit with stop losses. the post-liquidation pullback in price is interpreted as profit-taking volume from long positions.

open interest remains high, suggesting the potential for further volatility, especially in the $110,000 and $120,000 range, where a large amount of options open interest is concentrated.

Put/Call Ratio

the ratio of put to call options in the options market is rising, suggesting that investors are still expecting further gains. however, short-term put buying is also on the rise, and hedging demand is also on the rise, so a cautious approach is needed.

analyzing investor sentiment indicators

crypto Fear & Greed Index (CFGI)

currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is hovering around 75-80, which is considered to be in the "Greed" zone. while Bitcoin's recent breakout above $110,000 has significantly improved investor sentiment, it has not yet reached Extreme Greed (90+).

historical data shows that short-term corrections tend to occur when the index breaks above 80, and the current levels are in a zone where there is room for further upside but also the potential for short-term overheating.

news sentiment analysis

based on analyzing the last 24 hours of news headlines:

positive News:

  • "Michael Sailer says he's never selling Bitcoin, sticks to long-term holdings."
  • "Standard Chartered Bitcoin struggles to break below $100,000"
  • "Bitcoin and Ether ETFs start week with $283 million in inflows"
  • "Bitwise CEO sees $1.3 million in crypto for all of Wall Street"
  • "Powell officially announces QT halt"

negative/neutral news:

  • "Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily retraces $114,000"
  • "Binance delists 18 altcoins, cools investor sentiment"
  • "Will the crypto market have a representative index like the S&P500?"
  • "China warns of more liquidations, other negatives"

overall, positive news prevails, but some regulatory concerns and correction-related news are mixed in, keeping investors divided.

fundamental Analysis (Fundamentals)

institutional investment trends

recent moves by major institutions have been very positive:

  1. michael Saylor's MicroStrategy: "We're not selling Bitcoin," reaffirms long-term holding strategy
  2. ETF inflows: $283 million at the start of the week
  3. metaplanet: secures $500 million bitcoin-backed line of credit
  4. citigroup-Coinbase collaboration: Expanding crypto services for institutions
  5. trump-related whales: $430 million long position in Bitcoin-Ethereum

institutional investment like this is a key driver behind Bitcoin's long-term bull run.

macroeconomic environment

  • fed policy: Chairman Powell officially announces end to QE, resuming liquidity supply
  • u.S.-China relations: Global risk eases amid summit expectations
  • regulatory environment: Accelerated institutionalization in developed economies despite regulatory warnings in some countries

technological developments

  • western Union: launches Solana-based stablecoin, enters global payments market
  • metamask: Introduced multi-chain accounts (EVM, Solana, Bitcoin support)
  • won Hwa Stablecoin: Non-bank participation in banking consortium likely

buy Recommendation Score Analysis

trends in Buy Recommendation Score over the last 24 hours

time buy Recommendation Score key Rationale 05:43 -0.25 short-term pullback, discussion of introducing a proxy index, negative sentiment 04:46 1.1 new uptrend likely, Sailor holding, small overweight 03:46 2.43 break above $119,500, institutional buying, stop-loss advised 02:55 1.1 technical bullishness, ETF short liquidation, altcoin risk 01:46 1.1 optimism and Uncertainty Coexist, Conservative Buying 00:55 1.8 memecoin uncertain, institutional buying, ETF expansion bullish average around 1.5-2.0 moderate buy recommendation

key scores from the previous day (Oct. 28):

  • peak: 3.79 (04:44) - Bitcoin breaks $115k, institutional demand bullish
  • average: around 2.5 to 3.0 - strong buy recommendation

interpreting the score change

the drop in the buy recommendation score from the previous day indicates that

  1. short-term price correction underway
  2. 3-4% decline from the peak puts pressure on catch-up buying
  3. highlighting negative news such as altcoin delisting
  4. uncertainty about market structure changes, such as discussions about introducing a representative index

however, the score still remains in the 1-2 range, indicating a moderate buy view.

current Composite Buy Recommendation Score

composite Buy Recommendation Score: 1.8 / 5.0

rationale:

  • ✅ Medium to long-term uptrend continues (rising moving average line arrangement)
  • institutional investment continues (ETF inflows, sailor holdings expand)
  • improving macroeconomic environment (QT halted, more liquidity)
  • ⚠️ Short-term technical correction underway (RSI unwinds overbought)
  • ⚠️ Long positions somewhat overheated due to positive funding costs
  • ❌ Increased altcoin risk (delistings, liquidity concerns)

suggested investment strategy:

  • conservative investors: buy in installments when below $110,000
  • moderate investor: buy a small amount at current price and increase weight on further decline
  • aggressive investors: Chase the price above $115,000

future Outlook and Scenarios

short-term outlook (1 week)

bullish scenario (55% probability)

  • retest of $115,000 to $120,000 on successful support at $110,000
  • breakout strengthens on positive outcome of US-China summit
  • Upward momentum sustained on continued ETF inflows
  • target: $125,000

bearish scenario (45% probability)

  • correction to $105,000-107,000 on break of $110,000
  • further decline if regulatory uncertainty increases
  • bitcoin weakens alongside altcoins if altcoin weakness intensifies
  • support: $107,000

medium-term outlook (1 month)

november historical pattern:

  • "Bitcoin ($BTC) has an average November return of 40%" according to news data
  • november is historically a bullish month
  • funds are likely to inflow in anticipation of a year-end rally

key variables:

  1. fed FOMC meeting (scheduled for early November): direction of interest rate policy
  2. uS-China summit: outcome of tariffs and trade talks
  3. institutional investment persistence: Trends in ETF inflows
  4. regulatory environment: Governments' crypto policies

price targets:

  • bullish: $130,000 to $150,000
  • fundamental: $120,000 to $125,000
  • pessimistic: $95,000 to $105,000

long-term outlook (through year-end)

projections from major organizations:

  • bitwise CEO: $1.3 million (early to long-term)
  • standard Chartered: Difficult to get below $100,000
  • cashwood (ArcInvest): massive buying continues
  • market consensus: $130,000 to $150,000

if institutional investment continues and the macroeconomic environment remains favorable, it is possible to reach $130,000-150,000 by year-end.

cautions and risk factors when investing

key risks

  1. regulatory risk
    • continued cryptocurrency warnings in China
    • possible tightening of tax policies in each country
    • changes in market structure when introducing KRW stablecoins
  2. technical risk
    • highly leveraged positions could lead to rapid liquidation
    • reduced liquidity due to increased altcoin delistings
    • hacking and exchange risks
  3. macroeconomic risks
    • weakness across risk assets if US-China trade talks break down
    • fed unexpectedly resumes tightening
    • fears of a global recession
  4. market structure risk
    • Market structure changes as S&P500-style proxy indexes are debated
    • market reorganization in favor of large institutions reduces retail investor influence
    • Increased reliance on ETFs favors certain institutions such as BlackRock

investment Principles

  1. split-buy strategy: invest in multiple installments instead of all at once
  2. setting a stop-loss: Aim for a loss of 10-15% of your investment
  3. manageyour allocations: don't hold more than 20-30% of your total assets
  4. takea long-term view: don't be swayed by short-term volatility and hold for at least 3-6 months
  5. take emotions out ofthe equation: don't let fear and greed get the best of you

conclusion

as of October 29, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is in a healthy correction after a recent surge. bitcoin is finding support at the $125,000 level, accumulating energy for further gains, and the medium to long-term uptrend is solid with continued institutional investment and an improving macroeconomic environment.

technically, support at the 20-day moving average ($110,000) is key, and if it holds, a retest of $115,000-120,000 is possible. the Funding Ratio and the Fear and Greed Index are showing some overheating signals, so short-term chase buys should be cautious, with split buys preferred on corrections.

a composite buy recommendation score of 1.8/5.0indicates a "moderate buy view" and conservative investors may consider entering on a break below $110,000 and aggressive investors on a break above $115,000. given the historical bullish pattern in November and continued institutional investments, further upside is likely before the end of the year, but it is important to keep risk management in mind.

FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

Q1. Should I buy Bitcoin now? A. We're in the midst of a short-term correction, and it's safer to buy in installments around $110,000 rather than all at once. the medium to long-term outlook is positive, but you should be prepared for short-term volatility.

Q2. What about investing in altcoins? A. Altcoins are currently at heightened risk due to the delisting of Binance. after Bitcoin stabilizes, it is recommended to focus on the larger altcoins (ETH, XRP, SOL, etc.).

Q3. Will Bitcoin fall below $100,000? A. Standard Chartered sees "a break below $100,000 is unlikely" and given institutional buying and ETF inflows, $100,000 should act as a strong support level. However, a temporary pullback is possible in the event of a sharp downturn.

Q4. How high will it go by the end of the year? A. The market consensus is $130,000 to $150,000, and given the historical bullish pattern in November (up 40% on average), there is plenty of room for further upside by year-end. however, it will depend on macroeconomic variables.

Q5. Kimchi premium is low, are domestic investors bearish? A. The current near-zero level of the kimchi premium indicates that domestic and foreign investor sentiment is similar, which is a healthy state without extreme fear or greed. rather, it can be interpreted positively as the overheating after the surge has calmed down.